{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88c8034e-02e4-4b39-9546-e6f47e1c876a", "symbol": "BCN", "name": "Beacon Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.501, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.583, "architecture_energy": 11.832, "architecture_maturity": 54.029, "architecture_confidence": 57.25, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.12, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 23.58, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 52.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.72392, 2.688957, 2.674216, 2.839157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.91, "trend_reference": 3.125909, "distance_from_trend": -0.069071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.616268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.800444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.889421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.175637, "excess_performance": -0.239343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.800444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049657, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 361218, "relative_activity": 1.328604, "balance": 1.049657, "dry_up": 1.186828, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128367, "annualized_volatility": 0.676087, "from_high_reference": -0.382166, "from_low_reference": 1.119488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.125909, "fair_value_reference": 1.616268, "structural_low": 1.925574, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008114, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060606, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.067063, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.115385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.017384, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.134259, "worst_return": -0.081361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.296296, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 293715.1, "trend": 3.158576, "fair_value": 1.584201, "relative_strength": -4.961833, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.287745, "energy": 27.221133, "activity_lines": [ 2.76387, 2.598444, 2.713177, 2.92686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7, "volume": 333749, "typical_volume": 277176.45, "trend": 3.158576, "fair_value": 1.594728, "relative_strength": -3.109307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.070701, "energy": 25.34767, "activity_lines": [ 2.762251, 2.627403, 2.695428, 2.897275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.49, "volume": 385286, "typical_volume": 276709.9, "trend": 3.142243, "fair_value": 1.60391, "relative_strength": -13.37548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.21057, "energy": 20.852526, "activity_lines": [ 2.672547, 2.620362, 2.662441, 2.854141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.91, "volume": 361218, "typical_volume": 271877.75, "trend": 3.125909, "fair_value": 1.616268, "relative_strength": -2.889421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.583324, "energy": 11.831589, "activity_lines": [ 2.72392, 2.688957, 2.674216, 2.839157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }