{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88c88361-37d5-412d-9a19-691c8af6783c", "symbol": "600185", "name": "Zhuhai Zhumian Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.856, "architecture_energy": 56.546, "architecture_maturity": 97.015, "architecture_confidence": 88.762, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 28.96, "upward_expansion": 15.1, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 50.3, "downward_expansion": 79.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.626667, 4.627636, 4.95081, 5.290129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.7, "trend_reference": 5.761333, "distance_from_trend": -0.184217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.170192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.380004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300595, "excess_performance": -0.257391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166125, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300595, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99127091, "relative_activity": 1.063108, "balance": 0.302819, "dry_up": 1.255234, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072668, "annualized_volatility": 0.295098, "from_high_reference": -0.432367, "from_low_reference": 0.105882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.761333, "fair_value_reference": 6.170192, "structural_low": 4.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.019864, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": 0.004113, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.337553, "worst_return": -0.20434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025404, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.949533, "worst_return": -0.274744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.19898, "worst_return": -0.059172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 4.79, "volume": 117263807, "typical_volume": 93789531.1, "trend": 5.831667, "fair_value": 6.180321, "relative_strength": -18.062629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.421849, "energy": 64.153207, "activity_lines": [ 4.576667, 4.642, 5.00919, 5.36314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7, "volume": 99127091, "typical_volume": 93242745.95, "trend": 5.761333, "fair_value": 6.170192, "relative_strength": -21.380004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.856404, "energy": 56.545927, "activity_lines": [ 4.626667, 4.627636, 4.95081, 5.290129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }