{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88d7df69-e515-403b-8572-4b82d8a737d8", "symbol": "BTT", "name": "BlackRock Municipal 2030 Target Term Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.719, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.467, "architecture_energy": 28.943, "architecture_maturity": 18.105, "architecture_confidence": 61.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.38, "rotation_up": 25.59, "upward_expansion": 17.61, "deceleration": 42.2, "rotation_down": 49.57, "downward_expansion": 49.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.528237, 22.579891, 22.625074, 22.633229 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.6, "trend_reference": 22.629805, "distance_from_trend": -0.001317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.800114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.230319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001386, "excess_performance": -0.124239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360299, "relative_activity": 0.851878, "balance": 0.588119, "dry_up": 0.83193, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012277, "annualized_volatility": 0.052643, "from_high_reference": -0.02157, "from_low_reference": 0.041427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.629805, "fair_value_reference": 20.800114, "structural_low": 22.16437, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00371, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.005226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043119, "worst_return": -0.071779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008266, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064447, "worst_return": -0.09051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095845, "worst_return": -0.104632, "sufficient": 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"energy": 15.084332, "activity_lines": [ 22.695218, 22.668098, 22.677188, 22.658069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.63, "volume": 300849, "typical_volume": 454089.4, "trend": 22.61364, "fair_value": 20.738031, "relative_strength": -7.279652, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.358851, "energy": 11.589584, "activity_lines": [ 22.68175, 22.663862, 22.67373, 22.660325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.44, "volume": 379512, "typical_volume": 426858.1, "trend": 22.625707, "fair_value": 20.757321, "relative_strength": -7.308666, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.859817, "energy": 9.409923, "activity_lines": [ 22.605434, 22.627376, 22.652765, 22.649122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4, "volume": 366788, "typical_volume": 426090.25, "trend": 22.620636, "fair_value": 20.777899, "relative_strength": -8.189211, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.705532, "energy": 32.8903, "activity_lines": [ 22.528038, 22.583509, 22.629059, 22.63456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.6, "volume": 360299, "typical_volume": 422946.55, "trend": 22.629805, "fair_value": 20.800114, "relative_strength": -10.230319, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.467069, "energy": 28.943385, "activity_lines": [ 22.528237, 22.579891, 22.625074, 22.633229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }