{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88d91179-c95f-4fc6-aa0f-a83d35ea0a34", "symbol": "SHOP", "name": "Redcare Pharmacy NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.805, "architecture_energy": 42.932, "architecture_maturity": 54.059, "architecture_confidence": 39.703, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.2, "rotation_up": 44.84, "upward_expansion": 65.52, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 17.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.733333, 63.833273, 58.002048, 54.928301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.0, "trend_reference": 53.865334, "distance_from_trend": 0.169583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.5875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.555834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031514, "excess_performance": -0.205761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.316877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1021, "relative_activity": 1.212445, "balance": 0.849491, "dry_up": 1.918418, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104823, "annualized_volatility": 0.91763, "from_high_reference": -0.387755, "from_low_reference": 1.076467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.865334, "fair_value_reference": 103.5875, "structural_low": 30.34, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018704, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031995, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09799, "worst_return": -0.294737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.133432, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.157565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338462, "worst_return": -0.458824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068199, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.115435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.596923, "worst_return": -0.398885, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.464348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054764, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 99.940002, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 57.65, "trend": 88.211333, "fair_value": 113.240193, "relative_strength": 42.594191, "stage": 1, "regime": 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67.150002, "volume": 1785, "typical_volume": 771.6, "trend": 54.087, "fair_value": 104.483654, "relative_strength": -14.60839, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.634674, "energy": 76.106218, "activity_lines": [ 65.990001, 60.919456, 54.156144, 53.09342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.5, "volume": 1134, "typical_volume": 704.7, "trend": 54.108667, "fair_value": 104.235897, "relative_strength": -16.073654, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.122061, "energy": 65.136391, "activity_lines": [ 65.796667, 62.58491, 55.733001, 53.829743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.099998, "volume": 2522, "typical_volume": 823.5, "trend": 53.963667, "fair_value": 103.897756, "relative_strength": -18.927775, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.190951, "energy": 49.686684, "activity_lines": [ 64.546666, 63.285273, 56.876239, 54.345312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.0, "volume": 1021, "typical_volume": 842.1, "trend": 53.865334, "fair_value": 103.5875, "relative_strength": -18.555834, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.804671, "energy": 42.931743, "activity_lines": [ 63.733333, 63.833273, 58.002048, 54.928301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }