{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88da6b4f-7980-467d-84fb-bb69004dbebd", "symbol": "ATZ", "name": "Aritzia Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.644, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.708, "architecture_energy": 22.278, "architecture_maturity": 66.769, "architecture_confidence": 77.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.38, "rotation_up": 18.87, "upward_expansion": 48.29, "deceleration": 85.09, "rotation_down": 42.66, "downward_expansion": 28.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.107333, 147.958365, 148.730477, 142.770796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 144.600006, "trend_reference": 134.874667, "distance_from_trend": 0.072106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.450833, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.082049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.05183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.284648, "excess_performance": 0.164227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.082049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.409565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.284648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.428008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3173200, "relative_activity": 1.122571, "balance": 1.428008, "dry_up": 1.316877, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084456, "annualized_volatility": 0.408504, "from_high_reference": -0.150062, "from_low_reference": 1.045262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.874667, "fair_value_reference": 69.450833, "structural_low": 104.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.056285, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.047901, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.264191, "worst_return": -0.200191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.176684, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.153714, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.532895, "worst_return": -0.332995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.134281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281656, "worst_return": -0.218351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.417749, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.293982, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.119084, "worst_return": -0.163046, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.580768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.72638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.25, "volume": 2184200, "typical_volume": 2479440.0, "trend": 37.062667, "fair_value": 38.447372, "relative_strength": -41.837509, "stage": 4, "regime": 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143.169998, "volume": 4393500, "typical_volume": 2735745.0, "trend": 133.093334, "fair_value": 67.239423, "relative_strength": 13.602765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.893369, "energy": 30.393831, "activity_lines": [ 153.537335, 155.706184, 149.153382, 141.637721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.5, "volume": 3982400, "typical_volume": 2784970.0, "trend": 133.687, "fair_value": 67.942949, "relative_strength": 5.788761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.817731, "energy": 19.737295, "activity_lines": [ 146.346001, 152.12982, 148.648096, 141.728474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.679993, "volume": 3340700, "typical_volume": 2807475.0, "trend": 134.437, "fair_value": 68.677628, "relative_strength": 9.581462, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.052224, "energy": 22.03092, "activity_lines": [ 142.788665, 149.587818, 148.523191, 142.115118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.600006, "volume": 3173200, "typical_volume": 2826725.0, "trend": 134.874667, "fair_value": 69.450833, "relative_strength": 9.05183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.707803, "energy": 22.277946, "activity_lines": [ 142.107333, 147.958365, 148.730477, 142.770796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }