{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88ddeb91-1bcf-47c4-b1de-9bf29daae518", "symbol": "UTDI", "name": "United Internet AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.137, "architecture_energy": 41.562, "architecture_maturity": 37.176, "architecture_confidence": 84.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.79, "rotation_up": 23.51, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 57.55, "rotation_down": 50.33, "downward_expansion": 79.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.781333, 23.897818, 24.757058, 25.297885 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.9, "trend_reference": 25.963522, "distance_from_trend": -0.079478, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.756404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.150394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120515, "excess_performance": -0.185154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079478, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.865523, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 782405, "relative_activity": 1.079596, "balance": 4.865523, "dry_up": 1.055032, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059556, "annualized_volatility": 0.258849, "from_high_reference": -0.193854, "from_low_reference": 0.07464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.963522, "fair_value_reference": 21.756404, "structural_low": 22.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.018706, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.015446, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.230243, "worst_return": -0.116868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053438, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.14617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.592063, "worst_return": -0.2435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.169479, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.143476, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.58961, "worst_return": -0.357866, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 23.745333, 24.232, 25.115928, 25.612904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.64, "volume": 763751, "typical_volume": 734038.65, "trend": 26.143978, "fair_value": 21.702829, "relative_strength": -14.049939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.242851, "energy": 48.545428, "activity_lines": [ 23.717333, 24.017091, 24.918872, 25.442658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.9, "volume": 782405, "typical_volume": 724720.45, "trend": 25.963522, "fair_value": 21.756404, "relative_strength": -15.150394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.13735, "energy": 41.562362, "activity_lines": [ 23.781333, 23.897818, 24.757058, 25.297885 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }