{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88e56fde-b9d7-446b-9993-b54d351388aa", "symbol": "002164", "name": "Ningbo Donly Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.128, "architecture_energy": 63.856, "architecture_maturity": 17.098, "architecture_confidence": 82.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.75, "rotation_up": 10.87, "upward_expansion": 13.33, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 66.14, "downward_expansion": 84.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.957333, 11.41, 12.142048, 12.429892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.44, "trend_reference": 12.908, "distance_from_trend": -0.113728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.271474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.499856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174603, "excess_performance": -0.182003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49416175, "relative_activity": 0.758571, "balance": 1.363831, "dry_up": 0.679032, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113166, "annualized_volatility": 0.465029, "from_high_reference": -0.384284, "from_low_reference": 0.297052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.908, "fair_value_reference": 8.271474, "structural_low": 9.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.026749, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.007592, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.191956, "worst_return": -0.117241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.04797, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.061305, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.594142, "worst_return": -0.162637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.162037, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.146726, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.432489, "worst_return": -0.243433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.505946, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.293799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201237, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.32, "volume": 79073130, "typical_volume": 66438327.6, "trend": 13.682333, "fair_value": 8.158397, "relative_strength": -21.762434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.261515, "energy": 62.348721, "activity_lines": [ 12.177333, 12.662364, 12.851619, 13.086731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.67, "volume": 39573635, "typical_volume": 65464907.75, "trend": 13.481667, "fair_value": 8.182628, "relative_strength": -18.932352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.913824, "energy": 72.457966, "activity_lines": [ 11.589333, 12.228, 12.639238, 12.892387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.14, "volume": 43235958, "typical_volume": 64507165.4, "trend": 13.226667, "fair_value": 8.205833, "relative_strength": -23.151357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.081942, "energy": 76.083344, "activity_lines": [ 10.998, 11.751455, 12.392429, 12.676796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.02, "volume": 44712967, "typical_volume": 64556254.05, "trend": 13.060333, "fair_value": 8.236538, "relative_strength": -15.249666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.708568, "energy": 72.337147, "activity_lines": [ 10.881333, 11.510364, 12.243095, 12.53443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.44, "volume": 49416175, "typical_volume": 65143764.05, "trend": 12.908, "fair_value": 8.271474, "relative_strength": -16.499856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.127583, "energy": 63.856393, "activity_lines": [ 10.957333, 11.41, 12.142048, 12.429892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }