{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88e62448-df7b-4cf5-a870-a1a5107432e4", "symbol": "8926", "name": "Taiwan Cogeneration Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.262, "architecture_energy": 23.352, "architecture_maturity": 64.41, "architecture_confidence": 73.533, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.87, "rotation_up": 17.17, "upward_expansion": 54.91, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 44.32, "downward_expansion": 23.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.226667, 64.919157, 64.155118, 59.909549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.700001, "trend_reference": 54.382014, "distance_from_trend": 0.042624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.025549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.851157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.351045, "excess_performance": -0.090327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200842, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127811, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.351045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.530567, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33530653, "relative_activity": 0.981486, "balance": 1.530567, "dry_up": 0.709517, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134612, "annualized_volatility": 0.501776, "from_high_reference": -0.30765, "from_low_reference": 0.462785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.382014, "fair_value_reference": 43.025549, "structural_low": 41.627512, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001329, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028948, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.030172, "worst_return": -0.212245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040019, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.083927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001915, "worst_return": -0.12381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011885, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157823, "worst_return": -0.049015, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.076288, "energy": 42.159096, "activity_lines": [ 69.168403, 70.493184, 63.905449, 58.724124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.0, "volume": 25322946, "typical_volume": 32383234.1, "trend": 53.074224, "fair_value": 42.844285, "relative_strength": -9.257615, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.136762, "energy": 25.988279, "activity_lines": [ 65.153333, 68.574417, 64.040992, 59.147657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.0, "volume": 19979714, "typical_volume": 32919938.45, "trend": 53.816452, "fair_value": 42.944766, "relative_strength": -6.537802, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.971056, "energy": 29.266894, "activity_lines": [ 63.139999, 67.20406, 64.394558, 59.723513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 56.700001, "volume": 33530653, "typical_volume": 34163165.85, "trend": 54.382014, "fair_value": 43.025549, "relative_strength": -16.851157, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.261554, "energy": 23.351521, "activity_lines": [ 60.226667, 64.919157, 64.155118, 59.909549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }