{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88e82bfb-14f9-498f-b637-daf0edf23954", "symbol": "000042", "name": "Shenzhen Centralcon Investment Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.338, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.015, "architecture_energy": 40.27, "architecture_maturity": 19.453, "architecture_confidence": 84.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.09, "rotation_up": 18.56, "upward_expansion": 5.15, "deceleration": 58.61, "rotation_down": 55.14, "downward_expansion": 78.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.074, 8.118727, 8.638667, 8.766108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.39, "trend_reference": 8.828, "distance_from_trend": -0.049615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.61359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.104326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002389, "excess_performance": -0.00501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23184686, "relative_activity": 0.794938, "balance": 0.72249, "dry_up": 1.272974, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087375, "annualized_volatility": 0.344674, "from_high_reference": -0.200191, "from_low_reference": 0.157241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.828, "fair_value_reference": 6.61359, "structural_low": 7.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.024671, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.01037, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.259067, "worst_return": -0.225694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042465, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006119, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.222785, "worst_return": -0.271293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034826, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014821, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.189873, "worst_return": -0.320251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"close": 7.84, "volume": 53548077, "typical_volume": 29800399.25, "trend": 8.793333, "fair_value": 6.606667, "relative_strength": -8.859015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.803561, "energy": 66.301099, "activity_lines": [ 7.917333, 8.462909, 8.886952, 8.903656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.74, "volume": 45479181, "typical_volume": 30400138.25, "trend": 8.786333, "fair_value": 6.606859, "relative_strength": -9.880536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.980852, "energy": 65.544732, "activity_lines": [ 7.797333, 8.245455, 8.767762, 8.835699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.12, "volume": 26295270, "typical_volume": 30346300.05, "trend": 8.802333, "fair_value": 6.609872, "relative_strength": -3.685752, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.958715, "energy": 54.45278, "activity_lines": [ 7.883333, 8.140182, 8.689333, 8.79271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.39, "volume": 23184686, "typical_volume": 29165417.05, "trend": 8.828, "fair_value": 6.61359, "relative_strength": -5.104326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.014925, "energy": 40.270007, "activity_lines": [ 8.074, 8.118727, 8.638667, 8.766108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }