{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88f14c96-f0da-4f7c-a39f-3dc1225e7ea9", "symbol": "ETDD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Euro Stoxx 50 UCITS ETF EUR C", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.753, "architecture_energy": 69.58, "architecture_maturity": 32.662, "architecture_confidence": 92.084, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 62.73, "upward_expansion": 85.9, "deceleration": 53.44, "rotation_down": 22.93, "downward_expansion": 12.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.987667, 20.833691, 20.371719, 19.990849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.495001, "trend_reference": 19.625267, "distance_from_trend": 0.095272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.45284, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306461, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.027605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11005, "excess_performance": 0.056738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088316, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060276, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.215136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181339, "relative_activity": 0.897788, "balance": 3.215136, "dry_up": 1.019489, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024195, "annualized_volatility": 0.176733, "from_high_reference": -0.004861, "from_low_reference": 0.264561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.625267, "fair_value_reference": 16.45284, "structural_low": 17.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.007357, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": 0.004675, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.106964, "worst_return": -0.103118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006003, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.02118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125834, "worst_return": -0.06174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07151, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.040278, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116709, "worst_return": -0.162342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 270593, "typical_volume": 205232.15, "trend": 19.5533, "fair_value": 16.399129, "relative_strength": 5.874311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.245017, "energy": 54.126272, "activity_lines": [ 20.744333, 20.654182, 20.201638, 19.865578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.495001, "volume": 181339, "typical_volume": 201984.2, "trend": 19.625267, "fair_value": 16.45284, "relative_strength": 6.027605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.753177, "energy": 69.579503, "activity_lines": [ 20.987667, 20.833691, 20.371719, 19.990849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }