{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88f17a68-f85c-4770-8a27-838338fe38b5", "symbol": "3047", "name": "EDIMAX Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.369, "architecture_energy": 52.782, "architecture_maturity": 12.055, "architecture_confidence": 87.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.65, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 13.17, "deceleration": 36.15, "rotation_down": 63.02, "downward_expansion": 84.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.313333, 14.825455, 15.082619, 15.347742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.35, "trend_reference": 15.956667, "distance_from_trend": -0.100689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.244239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.834265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17765, "excess_performance": -0.619023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149044, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2702546, "relative_activity": 0.394273, "balance": 1.149044, "dry_up": 0.552945, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112302, "annualized_volatility": 0.380622, "from_high_reference": -0.424908, "from_low_reference": 0.091255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.956667, "fair_value_reference": 21.244239, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.022054, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.217631, "worst_return": -0.172727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.609649, "worst_return": -0.358932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.092421, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.045019, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.539474, "worst_return": -0.392321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.280468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.18578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": 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15.740538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8, "volume": 6201837, "typical_volume": 7279814.85, "trend": 16.2, "fair_value": 21.255383, "relative_strength": -42.383967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.282732, "energy": 46.172358, "activity_lines": [ 14.73, 15.201818, 15.266667, 15.575161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4, "volume": 2229982, "typical_volume": 7033654.85, "trend": 16.075, "fair_value": 21.250563, "relative_strength": -40.479535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.961038, "energy": 49.653695, "activity_lines": [ 14.473333, 15.011818, 15.171667, 15.459032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.35, "volume": 2702546, "typical_volume": 6854503.05, "trend": 15.956667, "fair_value": 21.244239, "relative_strength": -41.834265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.369143, "energy": 52.782318, "activity_lines": [ 14.313333, 14.825455, 15.082619, 15.347742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }