{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88f263dd-e249-4f3c-bd2e-612dad0519d4", "symbol": "CRDON", "name": "Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.572, "architecture_energy": 27.449, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.23, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 58.41, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 30.47, "downward_expansion": 19.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3897.902002, 4017.303454, 3846.742181, 3469.847001 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4273.0, "trend_reference": 3019.749992, "distance_from_trend": 0.415018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1454.319869, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.938143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.179736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.247764, "excess_performance": 1.302431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.415018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.938143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.451797, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15747, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.247764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.537589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2036, "relative_activity": 0.682054, "balance": 1.537589, "dry_up": 0.627031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14736, "annualized_volatility": 0.888197, "from_high_reference": -0.120782, "from_low_reference": 1.721656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3019.749992, "fair_value_reference": 1454.319869, "structural_low": 1570.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.193364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.136006, "worst_return": -0.19698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013251, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247978, "worst_return": -0.221477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.70005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.561642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.264537, "worst_return": 0.135564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.792944, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.519023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792944, "worst_return": 0.792944, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046117, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.299072, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.468563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"typical_volume": 2985.1, "trend": 3019.749992, "fair_value": 1454.319869, "relative_strength": 45.179736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.571912, "energy": 27.448613, "activity_lines": [ 3897.902002, 4017.303454, 3846.742181, 3469.847001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }