{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88ff32e6-b056-4000-9141-961f48a134cb", "symbol": "000757", "name": "Sichuan Haowu Electromechanical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.554, "architecture_energy": 38.517, "architecture_maturity": 78.904, "architecture_confidence": 62.76, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.39, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 17.42, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 41.27, "downward_expansion": 67.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.753333, 3.712545, 3.944381, 4.193677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.08, "trend_reference": 4.511, "distance_from_trend": -0.095544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.204103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.960105, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215385, "excess_performance": -0.222784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017585, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74231871, "relative_activity": 1.394634, "balance": 0.318344, "dry_up": 1.342576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092949, "annualized_volatility": 0.364197, "from_high_reference": -0.378995, "from_low_reference": 0.263158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.511, "fair_value_reference": 4.204103, "structural_low": 3.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.012438, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.005663, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.219424, "worst_return": -0.198697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054726, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010869, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.52381, "worst_return": -0.156044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100467, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.135555, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.406593, "worst_return": -0.182635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.149554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013283, 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51731198.15, "trend": 4.633333, "fair_value": 4.214167, "relative_strength": -27.974487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.423951, "energy": 66.153338, "activity_lines": [ 3.635333, 3.750545, 4.107286, 4.357441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.4, "volume": 80076918, "typical_volume": 52044048.7, "trend": 4.577667, "fair_value": 4.208526, "relative_strength": -31.054494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.944367, "energy": 64.183666, "activity_lines": [ 3.556667, 3.657091, 4.012524, 4.277871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.73, "volume": 63980500, "typical_volume": 52471895.95, "trend": 4.537333, "fair_value": 4.205064, "relative_strength": -22.593936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.927772, "energy": 55.320166, "activity_lines": [ 3.605333, 3.646727, 3.958143, 4.223183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.08, "volume": 74231871, "typical_volume": 53226759.6, "trend": 4.511, "fair_value": 4.204103, "relative_strength": -18.960105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.554361, "energy": 38.51676, "activity_lines": [ 3.753333, 3.712545, 3.944381, 4.193677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }