{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88ff7534-fcc5-410f-be4e-2e721c9d6035", "symbol": "600838", "name": "Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.821, "architecture_energy": 63.019, "architecture_maturity": 89.197, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 53.59, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.094667, 7.172909, 7.774095, 8.466366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.24, "trend_reference": 9.546667, "distance_from_trend": -0.24162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.111932, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.835652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.396163, "excess_performance": -0.35296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.396163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29129128, "relative_activity": 0.865415, "balance": 0.34008, "dry_up": 1.218561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078517, "annualized_volatility": 0.291191, "from_high_reference": -0.531695, "from_low_reference": 0.110429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.546667, "fair_value_reference": 8.111932, "structural_low": 6.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.010903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000429, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.458111, "worst_return": -0.118519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09539, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.015693, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.141119, "worst_return": -0.106061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082081, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.119185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.451262, "worst_return": 0.014352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.175333, 7.473455, 8.265048, 8.999204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.6, "volume": 41672185, "typical_volume": 35896540.6, "trend": 9.791667, "fair_value": 8.104297, "relative_strength": -27.020372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.606547, "energy": 73.319239, "activity_lines": [ 6.958, 7.256727, 8.039905, 8.783634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 42929100, "typical_volume": 36334137.0, "trend": 9.666, "fair_value": 8.109315, "relative_strength": -19.345191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.275208, "energy": 65.916027, "activity_lines": [ 7.042, 7.209091, 7.901714, 8.622882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.24, "volume": 29129128, "typical_volume": 33659125.6, "trend": 9.546667, "fair_value": 8.111932, "relative_strength": -21.835652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.821401, "energy": 63.019267, "activity_lines": [ 7.094667, 7.172909, 7.774095, 8.466366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }