{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8901fe60-239d-48ac-9af1-e364eefa2b78", "symbol": "BHARATGEAR", "name": "Bharat Gears Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.802, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.477, "architecture_energy": 14.944, "architecture_maturity": 56.81, "architecture_confidence": 84.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.08, "rotation_up": 20.57, "upward_expansion": 56.28, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 35.48, "downward_expansion": 19.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.590265, 120.597567, 118.640908, 115.169237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 106.25, "trend_reference": 111.959881, "distance_from_trend": -0.050999, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.820939, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.146413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114731, "excess_performance": -0.071022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042101, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.602599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191710, "relative_activity": 1.049324, "balance": 1.602599, "dry_up": 0.568801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106523, "annualized_volatility": 0.567887, "from_high_reference": -0.31096, "from_low_reference": 0.2679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.959881, "fair_value_reference": 105.820939, "structural_low": 83.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.050599, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056986, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.226287, "worst_return": -0.162592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029336, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006208, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14803, "worst_return": -0.132353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108893, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.102816, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189115, "worst_return": -0.138427, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153776, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 127.436164, 123.521642, 116.698695, 113.630089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 117.695175, "volume": 61005, "typical_volume": 182406.8, "trend": 111.165225, "fair_value": 106.001325, "relative_strength": 9.975598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.80437, "energy": 43.704423, "activity_lines": [ 124.512451, 122.978918, 117.335704, 114.077753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.321419, "volume": 47562, "typical_volume": 178652.35, "trend": 111.658272, "fair_value": 105.925501, "relative_strength": 14.451995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.403049, "energy": 26.875687, "activity_lines": [ 122.025808, 122.953053, 118.170807, 114.668475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.088288, "volume": 115399, "typical_volume": 177916.1, "trend": 111.918215, "fair_value": 105.912926, "relative_strength": 15.290984, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.574482, "energy": 21.693777, "activity_lines": [ 122.243361, 123.626775, 119.368605, 115.534928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.25, "volume": 191710, "typical_volume": 182698.5, "trend": 111.959881, "fair_value": 105.820939, "relative_strength": -3.146413, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.477313, "energy": 14.944065, "activity_lines": [ 116.590265, 120.597567, 118.640908, 115.169237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }