{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89025819-b8a4-4f33-a3ad-dc7d0caf19e2", "symbol": "688150", "name": "Shaanxi Lighte Optoelectronics Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.534, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.219, "architecture_energy": 34.01, "architecture_maturity": 7.263, "architecture_confidence": 44.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.33, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 60.56, "rotation_down": 63.54, "downward_expansion": 42.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.16, 46.963653, 50.472393, 48.583495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.830002, "trend_reference": 44.378375, "distance_from_trend": -0.03489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.328549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.690977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.071841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.538987, "excess_performance": 0.582191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.690977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.716573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.530626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.538987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65619799, "relative_activity": 1.209058, "balance": 0.826902, "dry_up": 1.023195, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.236074, "annualized_volatility": 0.881588, "from_high_reference": -0.407298, "from_low_reference": 1.029858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.378375, "fair_value_reference": 25.328549, "structural_low": 26.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032328, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010793, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.251917, "worst_return": -0.081747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.211799, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.354969, "worst_return": 0.187085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.27864, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.116353, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.052053, "worst_return": -0.029772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.31829, "energy": 25.56736, "activity_lines": [ 54.9, 55.158113, 53.868982, 49.533567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.169998, "volume": 56891593, "typical_volume": 56072745.55, "trend": 43.686708, "fair_value": 25.092576, "relative_strength": 14.547626, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.098817, "energy": 12.907098, "activity_lines": [ 48.987999, 52.07572, 52.788262, 49.271779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.040001, "volume": 55456789, "typical_volume": 54994934.05, "trend": 43.851708, "fair_value": 25.174524, "relative_strength": -1.179047, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.494849, "energy": 38.520608, "activity_lines": [ 42.609999, 48.410206, 51.199161, 48.649411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.830002, "volume": 65619799, "typical_volume": 54273477.8, "trend": 44.378375, "fair_value": 25.328549, "relative_strength": 20.071841, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.2195, "energy": 34.010225, "activity_lines": [ 41.16, 46.963653, 50.472393, 48.583495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }