{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89067428-1409-4650-9743-48e98b289cd6", "symbol": "PLBY", "name": "Plby Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.715, "architecture_energy": 51.175, "architecture_maturity": 40.845, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.85, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 8.96, "deceleration": 45.33, "rotation_down": 56.12, "downward_expansion": 82.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.18, 1.224182, 1.328, 1.424452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 1.549, "distance_from_trend": -0.212395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.269172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.822689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232704, "excess_performance": -0.420158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212395, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038743, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232704, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3241245, "relative_activity": 0.774716, "balance": 0.478048, "dry_up": 0.814907, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166828, "annualized_volatility": 0.732829, "from_high_reference": -0.556364, "from_low_reference": 0.128272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.549, "fair_value_reference": 1.269172, "structural_low": 1.0813, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.096535, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.101534, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.849045, "worst_return": -0.38855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.150754, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.349124, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.013423, "worst_return": -0.491049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.342838, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.456295, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.930254, "worst_return": -0.696464, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.389333, 1.417455, 1.522762, 1.594688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.26, "volume": 3327923, "typical_volume": 4520444.65, "trend": 1.665, "fair_value": 1.286608, "relative_strength": -34.632329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.060519, "energy": 40.695892, "activity_lines": [ 1.348667, 1.375636, 1.488095, 1.566624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.16, "volume": 3440127, "typical_volume": 4558556.1, "trend": 1.638333, "fair_value": 1.283403, "relative_strength": -40.13795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.333031, "energy": 50.79132, "activity_lines": [ 1.282, 1.326, 1.447381, 1.534043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 4099592, "typical_volume": 4493250.4, "trend": 1.616, "fair_value": 1.279941, "relative_strength": -36.221905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.927892, "energy": 65.838647, "activity_lines": [ 1.228, 1.288182, 1.412143, 1.503828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.22, "volume": 3452080, "typical_volume": 4503375.7, "trend": 1.594333, "fair_value": 1.275903, "relative_strength": -31.654842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.416349, "energy": 65.34062, "activity_lines": [ 1.208667, 1.270909, 1.38519, 1.47828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.11, "volume": 2844661, "typical_volume": 4520144.4, "trend": 1.57, "fair_value": 1.271415, "relative_strength": -37.345434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.690658, "energy": 68.594259, "activity_lines": [ 1.168, 1.235636, 1.35, 1.447032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 3241245, "typical_volume": 4183784.2, "trend": 1.549, "fair_value": 1.269172, "relative_strength": -33.822689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.714951, "energy": 51.175242, "activity_lines": [ 1.18, 1.224182, 1.328, 1.424452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }