{ "ticker": { "uuid": "890e3169-f294-4d5c-86f4-f55379985341", "symbol": "2323", "name": "CMC Magnetics Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.81, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.521, "architecture_energy": 23.601, "architecture_maturity": 37.469, "architecture_confidence": 82.385, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 4.7, "deceleration": 44.4, "rotation_down": 48.67, "downward_expansion": 73.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.551333, 10.724909, 10.774952, 10.811677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 10.830333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.277349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.98114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134538, "excess_performance": -0.306834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024597, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155031, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.356775, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34336624, "relative_activity": 0.780546, "balance": 2.356775, "dry_up": 0.658562, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103268, "annualized_volatility": 0.562487, "from_high_reference": -0.137405, "from_low_reference": 0.411424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.830333, "fair_value_reference": 10.277349, "structural_low": 9.26, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002501, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000743, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.42779, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004921, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.198031, "worst_return": -0.150427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.255784, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.227392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.928282, 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"direction": 51.718498, "energy": 39.634308, "activity_lines": [ 11.41, 11.231273, 11.00319, 10.952925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.25, "volume": 41439330, "typical_volume": 57651576.5, "trend": 10.869, "fair_value": 10.329926, "relative_strength": -24.772711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.155934, "energy": 7.972655, "activity_lines": [ 11.026667, 11.099273, 10.931952, 10.911376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.35, "volume": 23347017, "typical_volume": 56640659.85, "trend": 10.860667, "fair_value": 10.312118, "relative_strength": -25.334296, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.351242, "energy": 9.011296, "activity_lines": [ 10.74, 10.990909, 10.875, 10.877892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.94, "volume": 36296410, "typical_volume": 55331717.4, "trend": 10.842, "fair_value": 10.292269, "relative_strength": -26.959173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.988244, "energy": 31.402791, "activity_lines": [ 10.41, 10.797273, 10.782333, 10.818495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.25, "volume": 21901855, "typical_volume": 51732022.95, "trend": 10.813667, "fair_value": 10.279391, "relative_strength": -26.157861, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.601803, "energy": 35.836789, "activity_lines": [ 10.247333, 10.664727, 10.721857, 10.780301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.3, "volume": 34336624, "typical_volume": 43990540.2, "trend": 10.830333, "fair_value": 10.277349, "relative_strength": -20.98114, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.521163, "energy": 23.600985, "activity_lines": [ 10.551333, 10.724909, 10.774952, 10.811677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }