{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8913878b-7d0c-4880-bcfa-60a4f9ee9493", "symbol": "SEED", "name": "Origin Agritech Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.681, "architecture_energy": 29.55, "architecture_maturity": 40.448, "architecture_confidence": 62.372, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.42, "rotation_up": 23.41, "upward_expansion": 14.58, "deceleration": 61.19, "rotation_down": 43.68, "downward_expansion": 66.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.015987, 1.01344, 1.055644, 1.090476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.04, "trend_reference": 1.131553, "distance_from_trend": -0.080909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.1271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.511071, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.595384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045872, "excess_performance": -0.233325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.511071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 22.791986, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8450863, "relative_activity": 15.377825, "balance": 22.791986, "dry_up": 3.880454, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099112, "annualized_volatility": 0.663391, "from_high_reference": -0.582329, "from_low_reference": 0.202034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.131553, "fair_value_reference": 2.1271, "structural_low": 0.8652, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.041825, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.068856, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 1.025316, "worst_return": -0.318358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.183137, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.18502, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.542056, "worst_return": -0.40485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.244444, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.29921, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.635514, "worst_return": -0.530702, "sufficient": true }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.47541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.53012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.220211, "energy": 55.945905, "activity_lines": [ 1.014173, 1.032647, 1.100722, 1.124575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0, "volume": 29913, "typical_volume": 343363.3, "trend": 1.146553, "fair_value": 2.176779, "relative_strength": -26.48126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.068477, "energy": 46.004266, "activity_lines": [ 1.011067, 1.0218, 1.087643, 1.11454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 13904, "typical_volume": 341173.9, "trend": 1.140887, "fair_value": 2.157677, "relative_strength": -24.185732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.118491, "energy": 36.111433, "activity_lines": [ 1.011293, 1.015135, 1.075802, 1.10573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 35313, "typical_volume": 142411.15, "trend": 1.135553, "fair_value": 2.141267, "relative_strength": -25.067798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.080304, "energy": 38.233251, "activity_lines": [ 1.00664, 1.00956, 1.063151, 1.09664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.04, "volume": 8450863, "typical_volume": 549548.65, "trend": 1.131553, "fair_value": 2.1271, "relative_strength": -25.595384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.681085, "energy": 29.549823, "activity_lines": [ 1.015987, 1.01344, 1.055644, 1.090476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }