{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89176619-fdd0-4c18-bad5-93ec451b6c1b", "symbol": "301118", "name": "Hunan Hengguang Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.642, "architecture_energy": 77.14, "architecture_maturity": 14.122, "architecture_confidence": 83.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 17.62, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 77.95, "downward_expansion": 93.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.683333, 22.672, 25.442714, 25.949763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.4, "trend_reference": 26.400333, "distance_from_trend": -0.151526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.973922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.544229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173432, "excess_performance": -0.180831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18684772, "relative_activity": 0.926632, "balance": 0.439768, "dry_up": 1.063872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161641, "annualized_volatility": 0.644592, "from_high_reference": -0.425051, "from_low_reference": 0.351841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.400333, "fair_value_reference": 21.973922, "structural_low": 16.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.000971, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.235739, "worst_return": -0.291836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079772, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026814, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.216428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.184419, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 8e-06, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.3112, "worst_return": -0.311952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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53.20707, "activity_lines": [ 23.649333, 26.174909, 27.271476, 27.165613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.43, "volume": 23576995, "typical_volume": 20617837.1, "trend": 26.624, "fair_value": 22.058165, "relative_strength": -28.679984, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.173721, "energy": 70.882327, "activity_lines": [ 21.388, 24.351818, 26.434429, 26.626086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 22306071, "typical_volume": 20399547.85, "trend": 26.479, "fair_value": 22.005232, "relative_strength": -20.118461, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.497153, "energy": 80.076009, "activity_lines": [ 20.414666, 23.189636, 25.815762, 26.212925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.4, "volume": 18684772, "typical_volume": 20164174.6, "trend": 26.400333, "fair_value": 21.973922, "relative_strength": -15.544229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.642324, "energy": 77.139639, "activity_lines": [ 20.683333, 22.672, 25.442714, 25.949763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }