{ "ticker": { "uuid": "891ec535-006c-4da0-ab1a-a4e79188439d", "symbol": "3135", "name": "Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active Etf", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.016, "architecture_energy": 39.549, "architecture_maturity": 32.281, "architecture_confidence": 58.657, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.49, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 18.13, "deceleration": 66.36, "rotation_down": 35.57, "downward_expansion": 63.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.78, 20.598182, 21.680286, 22.227957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.799999, "trend_reference": 23.189667, "distance_from_trend": -0.103049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.02998, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.623803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028037, "excess_performance": 0.005544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200921, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.91871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2950, "relative_activity": 0.257075, "balance": 2.91871, "dry_up": 0.968388, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056028, "annualized_volatility": 0.331136, "from_high_reference": -0.504526, "from_low_reference": 3.409676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.189667, "fair_value_reference": 26.02998, "structural_low": 19.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052677, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.447514, "worst_return": -0.098451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046205, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019928, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.318232, "worst_return": -0.196626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.190871, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.358102, "worst_return": -0.373748, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.884767, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.75431, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.263205, "worst_return": 0.506329, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010892, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 6.157243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01272, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.01, "volume": 47350, "typical_volume": 97087.7, "trend": 11.575667, "fair_value": 8.507756, "relative_strength": 18.288943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.545218, 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.37833, "energy": 62.193405, "activity_lines": [ 11.046, 11.493455, 11.778905, 11.817871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 11.06, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 47090.2, "trend": 11.686167, "fair_value": 8.590513, "relative_strength": 13.872896, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.250131, "energy": 58.68117, "activity_lines": [ 10.989333, 11.345818, 11.702048, 11.778849 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 11.01, "volume": 11850, "typical_volume": 45035.2, "trend": 11.7045, "fair_value": 8.611346, "relative_strength": 13.422786, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.923952, "energy": 58.797994, "activity_lines": [ 10.995333, 11.218, 11.62819, 11.735226 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 11.22, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 43315.2, "trend": 11.7535, "fair_value": 8.633526, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.029175, "energy": 81.553651, "activity_lines": [ 20.319333, 21.184, 22.452857, 23.041678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.34, "volume": 2050, "typical_volume": 13210.1, "trend": 24.029667, "fair_value": 25.86248, "relative_strength": -25.034684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.18679, "energy": 62.456957, "activity_lines": [ 20.318667, 20.818727, 22.203857, 22.78514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.16, "volume": 35450, "typical_volume": 14567.6, "trend": 23.776334, "fair_value": 25.920365, "relative_strength": -22.325693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.150926, "energy": 52.232472, "activity_lines": [ 20.599333, 20.704727, 22.042572, 22.6 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 14155.1, "trend": 23.490334, "fair_value": 25.975172, "relative_strength": -25.682852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.315141, "energy": 42.10598, "activity_lines": [ 20.709334, 20.601637, 21.849857, 22.401527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 2950, "typical_volume": 11475.25, "trend": 23.189667, "fair_value": 26.02998, "relative_strength": -23.623803, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.016161, "energy": 39.549404, "activity_lines": [ 20.78, 20.598182, 21.680286, 22.227957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }