{ "ticker": { "uuid": "891f8fcc-ebc8-4a14-86e9-f655d897060d", "symbol": "3625", "name": "C-Tech United Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.257, "architecture_energy": 12.139, "architecture_maturity": 21.812, "architecture_confidence": 55.063, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.31, "rotation_up": 22.22, "upward_expansion": 20.53, "deceleration": 55.52, "rotation_down": 33.2, "downward_expansion": 52.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.363333, 16.524545, 16.198571, 16.37785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 16.921667, "distance_from_trend": -0.060376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.425, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031963, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.826984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167539, "excess_performance": -0.608911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121088, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.44827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.450223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1632156, "relative_activity": 0.527673, "balance": 2.450223, "dry_up": 0.852283, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129415, "annualized_volatility": 0.372392, "from_high_reference": -0.555245, "from_low_reference": 0.21374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.921667, "fair_value_reference": 16.425, "structural_low": 13.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.015148, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.226277, "worst_return": -0.076667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.087285, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268657, "worst_return": -0.177049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010712, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.199031, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.262248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047904, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.05, "volume": 1043000, "typical_volume": 2706700.0, "trend": 14.616667, "fair_value": 18.703331, "relative_strength": -6.139651, "stage": 1, "regime": 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12.711462, "activity_lines": [ 17.08, 16.566364, 16.224524, 16.577634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 2175033, "typical_volume": 3133777.6, "trend": 17.193333, "fair_value": 16.425641, "relative_strength": -41.49079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.269683, "energy": 11.05256, "activity_lines": [ 16.84, 16.596364, 16.220238, 16.507097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.35, "volume": 1188081, "typical_volume": 3120730.5, "trend": 17.06, "fair_value": 16.427564, "relative_strength": -41.949603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.247321, "energy": 7.731396, "activity_lines": [ 16.663333, 16.618182, 16.22881, 16.452688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.9, "volume": 1632156, "typical_volume": 3093121.35, "trend": 16.921667, "fair_value": 16.425, "relative_strength": -44.826984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.257102, "energy": 12.139414, "activity_lines": [ 16.363333, 16.524545, 16.198571, 16.37785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }