{ "ticker": { "uuid": "892acbc7-95ed-4675-a200-8f1507e9feb3", "symbol": "002789", "name": "Shenzhen Jianyi Decoration Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.411, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.715, "architecture_energy": 64.921, "architecture_maturity": 17.5, "architecture_confidence": 66.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.57, "rotation_up": 16.45, "upward_expansion": 22.87, "deceleration": 43.26, "rotation_down": 69.68, "downward_expansion": 62.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.522, 10.399818, 11.527905, 11.625441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.83, "trend_reference": 11.480333, "distance_from_trend": -0.143753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.545385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.438862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003061, "excess_performance": -0.004339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15055800, "relative_activity": 1.189807, "balance": 1.407738, "dry_up": 1.085925, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156742, "annualized_volatility": 0.581669, "from_high_reference": -0.347278, "from_low_reference": 0.290026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.480333, "fair_value_reference": 10.545385, "structural_low": 7.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065858, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.043738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142209, "worst_return": -0.051595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030257, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113703, "worst_return": -0.073835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063411, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.169109, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25416, "worst_return": -0.389308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.564297, "worst_return": -0.350583, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126002, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.24, "volume": 32120542, "typical_volume": 9192691.85, "trend": 15.047667, "fair_value": 14.286987, "relative_strength": 11.53286, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.6328, "energy": 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"typical_volume": 13963260.4, "trend": 11.533, "fair_value": 10.615513, "relative_strength": -18.482125, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.47962, "energy": 68.328716, "activity_lines": [ 9.817333, 11.170727, 11.994476, 11.859957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.57, "volume": 11279500, "typical_volume": 13701206.65, "trend": 11.502, "fair_value": 10.580321, "relative_strength": -9.266059, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.754592, "energy": 65.040775, "activity_lines": [ 9.562, 10.728364, 11.745619, 11.733312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.83, "volume": 15055800, "typical_volume": 12653986.15, "trend": 11.480333, "fair_value": 10.545385, "relative_strength": -11.438862, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.714818, "energy": 64.921069, "activity_lines": [ 9.522, 10.399818, 11.527905, 11.625441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }