{ "ticker": { "uuid": "892b5e03-14f5-4391-9dbe-cee894f5adb3", "symbol": "YUMC", "name": "Yum China Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.145, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.027, "architecture_energy": 21.796, "architecture_maturity": 73.132, "architecture_confidence": 51.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.68, "rotation_up": 45.33, "upward_expansion": 23.29, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 15.2, "downward_expansion": 54.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.152, 44.655636, 44.666697, 45.962484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.72, "trend_reference": 47.641165, "distance_from_trend": 0.001655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.183079, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.60996, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166518, "excess_performance": -0.292143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019122, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.903391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7388019, "relative_activity": 0.967401, "balance": 0.903391, "dry_up": 1.131939, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047219, "annualized_volatility": 0.251644, "from_high_reference": -0.172799, "from_low_reference": 0.188543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.641165, "fair_value_reference": 43.183079, "structural_low": 40.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.00836, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.005468, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.492303, "worst_return": -0.205265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059871, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.12647, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.417287, "worst_return": -0.16016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.160609, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.410791, "worst_return": -0.293055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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43.87, "volume": 8565786, "typical_volume": 7914046.9, "trend": 47.757948, "fair_value": 43.329457, "relative_strength": -13.401349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.078803, "energy": 53.165511, "activity_lines": [ 42.744, 42.885812, 44.537454, 46.197978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.4, "volume": 7623949, "typical_volume": 7721582.35, "trend": 47.586293, "fair_value": 43.245017, "relative_strength": -13.444801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.906722, "energy": 39.489984, "activity_lines": [ 43.052667, 42.925975, 44.259332, 45.916821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.18, "volume": 11000614, "typical_volume": 7781835.75, "trend": 47.605917, "fair_value": 43.213975, "relative_strength": -4.690509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.303769, "energy": 18.891971, "activity_lines": [ 44.923333, 43.868182, 44.474978, 45.955124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.72, "volume": 7388019, "typical_volume": 7636975.25, "trend": 47.641165, "fair_value": 43.183079, "relative_strength": -8.60996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.02685, "energy": 21.795801, "activity_lines": [ 46.152, 44.655636, 44.666697, 45.962484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }