{ "ticker": { "uuid": "892faeef-b0f1-41b4-ab4f-a73bc3dea9f7", "symbol": "CPS", "name": "Cooper Stnd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.725, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.199, "architecture_energy": 11.83, "architecture_maturity": 66.207, "architecture_confidence": 65.236, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.71, "rotation_up": 30.25, "upward_expansion": 18.75, "deceleration": 42.26, "rotation_down": 27.31, "downward_expansion": 57.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.54, 28.914909, 29.093571, 29.75729 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.4, "trend_reference": 30.931333, "distance_from_trend": 0.015152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.388462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.468081, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.059772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09301, "excess_performance": -0.218635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.468081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027247, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09301, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.453997, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1470238, "relative_activity": 1.687872, "balance": 1.453997, "dry_up": 1.101778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10343, "annualized_volatility": 0.608321, "from_high_reference": -0.345561, "from_low_reference": 0.24258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.931333, "fair_value_reference": 21.388462, "structural_low": 25.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.020762, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.029385, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.685771, "worst_return": -0.361741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070987, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.925466, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075903, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.153371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169697, "worst_return": -0.358178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.745455, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.613666, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.796443, "worst_return": -0.813559, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.243939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.051929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.400529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.19034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.358628, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095604, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.28, "volume": 709695, "typical_volume": 959724.7, "trend": 14.283667, "fair_value": 18.597564, "relative_strength": 31.028473, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.681688, "energy": 42.304246, "activity_lines": [ 27.943333, 28.489818, 29.15819, 30.270043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.62, "volume": 788613, "typical_volume": 867496.85, "trend": 31.256, "fair_value": 21.186795, "relative_strength": -20.569206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.867045, "energy": 48.027436, "activity_lines": [ 27.683333, 28.279636, 28.942238, 30.02 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.41, "volume": 806132, "typical_volume": 863451.1, "trend": 31.1, "fair_value": 21.255128, "relative_strength": -17.813445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.69698, "energy": 40.729308, "activity_lines": [ 27.809333, 28.270909, 28.853048, 29.836387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.47, "volume": 773876, "typical_volume": 843959.65, "trend": 30.996, "fair_value": 21.304936, "relative_strength": -15.553881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.7746, "energy": 23.812765, "activity_lines": [ 28.382667, 28.426727, 28.881905, 29.731226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.4, "volume": 1470238, "typical_volume": 871060.05, "trend": 30.931333, "fair_value": 21.388462, "relative_strength": -13.059772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.199021, "energy": 11.829964, "activity_lines": [ 29.54, 28.914909, 29.093571, 29.75729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }