{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89324e20-a0f3-4b4d-b309-f4138e58e2ec", "symbol": "9070", "name": "Ping An of China Trust - Ping An of China CSI HK Dividend ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.995, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.006, "architecture_energy": 24.36, "architecture_maturity": 71.37, "architecture_confidence": 53.803, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.34, "rotation_up": 55.59, "upward_expansion": 33.89, "deceleration": 47.33, "rotation_down": 16.73, "downward_expansion": 22.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.1692, 5.070202, 5.137636, 5.169188 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.145, "trend_reference": 5.168876, "distance_from_trend": -0.004619, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.554677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.901437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017038, "excess_performance": 0.050619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.568353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.568353, "dry_up": 1.764354, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028205, "annualized_volatility": 0.157515, "from_high_reference": -0.071595, "from_low_reference": 0.152215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.168876, "fair_value_reference": 4.554677, "structural_low": 4.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.003686, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022957, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003686, "worst_return": 0.003686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041856, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032793, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 3.791015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 109000, "typical_volume": 39255.0, "trend": 5.131389, "fair_value": 4.532764, "relative_strength": 5.116133, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.206413, "energy": 76.814923, "activity_lines": [ 4.882776, 4.985922, 5.132532, 5.153324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.205, "volume": 55000, "typical_volume": 34490.0, "trend": 5.144469, "fair_value": 4.539993, "relative_strength": 7.40702, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.322409, "energy": 35.786707, "activity_lines": [ 4.993533, 5.008045, 5.132408, 5.158073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.33, "volume": 42500, "typical_volume": 33280.0, "trend": 5.158261, "fair_value": 4.548397, "relative_strength": 5.855567, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.135675, "energy": 23.40313, "activity_lines": [ 5.131067, 5.055954, 5.143991, 5.170043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.145, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29260.0, "trend": 5.168876, "fair_value": 4.554677, "relative_strength": 2.901437, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.005566, "energy": 24.360343, "activity_lines": [ 5.1692, 5.070202, 5.137636, 5.169188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }