{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8936773f-dae7-40a2-bfea-d3ee12b93fd6", "symbol": "003002", "name": "Shanxi Huhua Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.645, "architecture_energy": 67.466, "architecture_maturity": 42.994, "architecture_confidence": 89.421, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 19.81, "upward_expansion": 12.34, "deceleration": 48.47, "rotation_down": 68.24, "downward_expansion": 88.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.062, 16.967272, 19.81004, 21.736412 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.719999, "trend_reference": 24.264511, "distance_from_trend": -0.310928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.278742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.382386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.415997, "excess_performance": -0.423397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.5404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.415997, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16700700, "relative_activity": 1.367152, "balance": 0.603235, "dry_up": 1.254816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122753, "annualized_volatility": 0.378279, "from_high_reference": -0.500896, "from_low_reference": 0.175809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.264511, "fair_value_reference": 20.278742, "structural_low": 14.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008293, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.002015, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.44873, "worst_return": -0.267673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.098695, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10435, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.145576, "worst_return": -0.328509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.080611, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.022727, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.793066, "worst_return": -0.17747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 15.98, "volume": 11377764, "typical_volume": 11883815.15, "trend": 25.822844, "fair_value": 20.290142, "relative_strength": -38.988234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.104983, "energy": 92.729197, "activity_lines": [ 17.235333, 18.97893, 21.899212, 23.561285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.01, "volume": 17954138, "typical_volume": 12048260.2, "trend": 25.286511, "fair_value": 20.279205, "relative_strength": -42.222148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.641889, "energy": 91.934857, "activity_lines": [ 16.232, 17.966446, 21.06552, 22.863683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.88, "volume": 15281170, "typical_volume": 12075941.65, "trend": 24.786178, "fair_value": 20.276344, "relative_strength": -37.12122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.185441, "energy": 85.466999, "activity_lines": [ 15.938667, 17.314515, 20.371304, 22.256811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.719999, "volume": 16700700, "typical_volume": 12215687.45, "trend": 24.264511, "fair_value": 20.278742, "relative_strength": -36.382386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.645461, "energy": 67.466086, "activity_lines": [ 16.062, 16.967272, 19.81004, 21.736412 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }