{ "ticker": { "uuid": "893f673f-99a3-430b-9e45-a4bd02cd2020", "symbol": "TCPC", "name": "BlackRock TCP Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.946, "architecture_energy": 8.223, "architecture_maturity": 34.097, "architecture_confidence": 57.0, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.34, "rotation_up": 29.74, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 23.5, "downward_expansion": 63.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.527333, 3.437919, 3.533941, 3.600332 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.11, "trend_reference": 3.805282, "distance_from_trend": 0.080078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.064883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.970547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070293, "excess_performance": -0.257747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080078, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7145586, "relative_activity": 1.731992, "balance": 0.845943, "dry_up": 0.980538, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077822, "annualized_volatility": 0.518252, "from_high_reference": -0.324163, "from_low_reference": 0.334416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.805282, "fair_value_reference": 6.064883, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049302, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.001698, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.109347, "worst_return": -0.105063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069482, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042316, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.011492, "worst_return": -0.279035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109728, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.106036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115588, "worst_return": -0.230873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.996396, "energy": 58.675796, "activity_lines": [ 3.304, 3.393511, 3.552106, 3.67594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 2280596, "typical_volume": 4519843.45, "trend": 3.897418, "fair_value": 6.117608, "relative_strength": -36.810528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.007625, "energy": 57.753981, "activity_lines": [ 3.252, 3.33377, 3.511968, 3.624518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 2853841, "typical_volume": 4310403.95, "trend": 3.837471, "fair_value": 6.087881, "relative_strength": -34.317119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.011466, "energy": 50.521584, "activity_lines": [ 3.246667, 3.304879, 3.4819, 3.58275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.11, "volume": 7145586, "typical_volume": 4125645.95, "trend": 3.805282, "fair_value": 6.064883, "relative_strength": -19.970547, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.946262, "energy": 8.222685, "activity_lines": [ 3.527333, 3.437919, 3.533941, 3.600332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }