{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8942dc26-ed76-4f39-8c52-9d0d148fac5c", "symbol": "MLFIR", "name": "Firstcaution SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.634, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.285, "architecture_energy": 22.512, "architecture_maturity": 16.27, "architecture_confidence": 71.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.32, "rotation_up": 30.64, "upward_expansion": 60.05, "deceleration": 80.07, "rotation_down": 23.04, "downward_expansion": 14.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.0, 31.90509, 32.166026, 31.06355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.0, "trend_reference": 30.110285, "distance_from_trend": 0.06276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.681229, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.559185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.185185, "excess_performance": 0.131874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.185185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.857143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.857143, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044581, "annualized_volatility": 0.546347, "from_high_reference": -0.477498, "from_low_reference": 0.454545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.110285, "fair_value_reference": 35.681229, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below 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0.262293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.182368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.71282, "worst_return": -0.188234, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"relative_strength": -15.422114, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.027155, "energy": 16.061403, "activity_lines": [ 31.850855, 32.100102, 31.819005, 30.871545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.4, "trend": 30.950285, "fair_value": 35.697393, "relative_strength": -15.297991, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.515381, "energy": 10.059254, "activity_lines": [ 31.925428, 31.970855, 31.982298, 30.901006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.35, "trend": 30.530285, "fair_value": 35.689311, "relative_strength": -16.113029, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.715659, "energy": 22.382067, "activity_lines": [ 31.975143, 31.877972, 32.097971, 30.96873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.35, "trend": 30.110285, "fair_value": 35.681229, "relative_strength": -17.559185, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.285152, "energy": 22.511792, "activity_lines": [ 32.0, 31.90509, 32.166026, 31.06355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }