{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89457cff-a8d8-4a72-9e6c-2853b74d1064", "symbol": "243890", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger 200 Energy Leverage ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.946, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.78, "architecture_energy": 53.856, "architecture_maturity": 25.228, "architecture_confidence": 87.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.02, "rotation_up": 11.57, "upward_expansion": 9.95, "deceleration": 42.19, "rotation_down": 67.92, "downward_expansion": 85.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7867.333333, 8461.0, 9789.238095, 9999.978495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7850.0, "trend_reference": 10004.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.215353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6574.611212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.53924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068249, "excess_performance": -0.298078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006021, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006021, "worst_return": -0.006021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.242705, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.242705, "worst_return": -0.242705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.289486, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.250202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.289486, "worst_return": -0.289486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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-16.627126, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.396578, "energy": 45.116807, "activity_lines": [ 8555.333333, 9377.545455, 10360.738095, 10327.784946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6960.0, "volume": 570619, "typical_volume": 217162.0, "trend": 9958.833333, "fair_value": 6592.156372, "relative_strength": -33.406279, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.040651, "energy": 54.429382, "activity_lines": [ 7989.666667, 8784.818182, 10028.357143, 10136.032258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7850.0, "volume": 140625, "typical_volume": 213477.05, "trend": 10004.5, "fair_value": 6574.611212, "relative_strength": -20.53924, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.780018, "energy": 53.856174, "activity_lines": [ 7867.333333, 8461.0, 9789.238095, 9999.978495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }