{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89506a99-0e1d-45b9-8b60-131584d692b6", "symbol": "TARAPUR", "name": "Tarapur Transformers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.051, "architecture_energy": 89.2, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.654, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 19.82, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 78.0, "downward_expansion": 95.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.053333, 17.210364, 19.060619, 20.639914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.21, "trend_reference": 22.710333, "distance_from_trend": -0.418326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.271218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.596866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.546827, "excess_performance": -0.503118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.418326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.525242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.485969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.546827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.205622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 591412, "relative_activity": 4.970237, "balance": 0.205622, "dry_up": 1.948268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157515, "annualized_volatility": 0.460962, "from_high_reference": -0.669667, "from_low_reference": 0.0819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.710333, "fair_value_reference": 21.271218, "structural_low": 12.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.035184, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.003669, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.325301, "worst_return": -0.14137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.208703, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.156491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.477612, "worst_return": -0.183976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.196642, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.350202, "worst_return": 0.012658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"direction": -70.528939, "energy": 69.78945, "activity_lines": [ 18.685333, 19.386182, 21.161286, 22.540903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.85, "volume": 66075, "typical_volume": 85991.65, "trend": 24.021667, "fair_value": 21.055705, "relative_strength": -31.298902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.34325, "energy": 75.466381, "activity_lines": [ 18.318, 18.974727, 20.718286, 22.118344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.16, "volume": 111184, "typical_volume": 88744.3, "trend": 23.651, "fair_value": 21.139423, "relative_strength": -28.068824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.33, "energy": 74.162344, "activity_lines": [ 18.147333, 18.714364, 20.340476, 21.740172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 158632, "typical_volume": 93969.25, "trend": 23.213, "fair_value": 21.216346, "relative_strength": -35.466822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.536936, "energy": 77.602662, "activity_lines": [ 17.602667, 18.226, 19.845333, 21.285269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.21, "volume": 591412, "typical_volume": 118990.7, "trend": 22.710333, "fair_value": 21.271218, "relative_strength": -48.596866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.051247, "energy": 89.199957, "activity_lines": [ 16.053333, 17.210364, 19.060619, 20.639914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }