{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89509977-afe3-498f-a473-af6eac850d5c", "symbol": "SN", "name": "Smith & Nephew plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.401, "architecture_energy": 22.043, "architecture_maturity": 66.45, "architecture_confidence": 72.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.84, "rotation_up": 23.61, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 34.41, "downward_expansion": 56.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1137.4, 1137.281818, 1139.385714, 1161.224105 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1113.0, "trend_reference": 1192.72113, "distance_from_trend": -0.06684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1118.347444, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004782, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.77499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121418, "excess_performance": -0.172654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022928, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121418, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.364019, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25207754, "relative_activity": 2.174732, "balance": 1.364019, "dry_up": 1.391619, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050029, "annualized_volatility": 0.227697, "from_high_reference": -0.22771, "from_low_reference": 0.06 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1192.72113, "fair_value_reference": 1118.347444, "structural_low": 1050.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.000312, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.000475, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.112861, "worst_return": -0.113421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009364, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.038623, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.196363, "worst_return": -0.086804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008271, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0388, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.096147, "worst_return": -0.13457, "sufficient": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1140.0, "volume": 8852779, "typical_volume": 10886682.6, "trend": 1199.509041, "fair_value": 1118.172683, "relative_strength": -15.353899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.02996, "energy": 21.576165, "activity_lines": [ 1141.1, 1137.4, 1143.804597, 1169.32458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1158.5, "volume": 13786136, "typical_volume": 10940392.3, "trend": 1197.54832, "fair_value": 1118.383478, "relative_strength": -14.751056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.791423, "energy": 16.01058, "activity_lines": [ 1147.5, 1141.663636, 1143.549162, 1166.678835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1113.0, "volume": 25207754, "typical_volume": 11591202.4, "trend": 1192.72113, "fair_value": 1118.347444, "relative_strength": -17.77499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.401369, "energy": 22.042959, "activity_lines": [ 1137.4, 1137.281818, 1139.385714, 1161.224105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }