{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8951a27d-1075-4bea-86d9-42e757b07964", "symbol": "XMOV", "name": "XTRACKERS (IE) PUBLIC LIMITED C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.226, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.781, "architecture_energy": 38.927, "architecture_maturity": 50.054, "architecture_confidence": 53.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.52, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 43.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.729335, 102.938455, 104.996929, 102.895043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 101.660004, "trend_reference": 100.0, "distance_from_trend": 0.0166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.797255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.232066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095061, "excess_performance": 0.043826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.709327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16998, "relative_activity": 4.644516, "balance": 1.709327, "dry_up": 2.365635, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046337, "annualized_volatility": 0.26833, "from_high_reference": -0.123923, "from_low_reference": 0.304672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.0, "fair_value_reference": 83.797255, "structural_low": 85.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.119032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.125969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119032, "worst_return": 0.119032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.212975, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.18972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212975, "worst_return": 0.212975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058015, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046315, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 68.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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"trend": 100.0, "fair_value": 83.797255, "relative_strength": -0.232066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.780557, "energy": 38.926549, "activity_lines": [ 99.729335, 102.938455, 104.996929, 102.895043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }