{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8952fbc7-4cc2-46b2-9276-d1a7419ad18c", "symbol": "ILM1", "name": "Medios AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.681, "architecture_energy": 57.607, "architecture_maturity": 39.398, "architecture_confidence": 89.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.71, "rotation_up": 16.39, "upward_expansion": 9.91, "deceleration": 44.37, "rotation_down": 60.85, "downward_expansion": 80.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.557333, 11.878909, 12.360762, 12.848215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.04, "trend_reference": 13.671333, "distance_from_trend": -0.192471, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.187564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.047035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322699, "excess_performance": -0.387339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152423, "relative_activity": 0.693922, "balance": 0.720464, "dry_up": 0.941756, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093227, "annualized_volatility": 0.472625, "from_high_reference": -0.366973, "from_low_reference": 0.022222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.671333, "fair_value_reference": 14.187564, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.00314, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.013878, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.165088, "worst_return": -0.243104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045008, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.294017, "worst_return": -0.22931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052381, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.002472, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.25812, "worst_return": -0.165517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.0, "volume": 118064, "typical_volume": 264052.55, "trend": 14.033333, "fair_value": 14.325641, "relative_strength": -16.337082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.011778, "energy": 50.767181, "activity_lines": [ 12.241333, 12.483636, 12.85181, 13.421462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.4, "volume": 94325, "typical_volume": 255956.4, "trend": 13.995333, "fair_value": 14.296538, "relative_strength": -12.659762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.244384, "energy": 44.3205, "activity_lines": [ 12.277333, 12.414182, 12.765143, 13.316086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.48, "volume": 130866, "typical_volume": 241288.9, "trend": 13.94, "fair_value": 14.263718, "relative_strength": -13.006163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.237306, "energy": 35.535757, "activity_lines": [ 12.328, 12.401818, 12.708, 13.218323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.98, "volume": 449829, "typical_volume": 228231.2, "trend": 13.816667, "fair_value": 14.227051, "relative_strength": -24.764264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.140704, "energy": 47.95959, "activity_lines": [ 11.896, 12.113818, 12.523905, 13.027355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.04, "volume": 152423, "typical_volume": 219654.3, "trend": 13.671333, "fair_value": 14.187564, "relative_strength": -26.047035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.681153, "energy": 57.60664, "activity_lines": [ 11.557333, 11.878909, 12.360762, 12.848215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }