{ "ticker": { "uuid": "895cdcc2-a3c0-43d1-8d16-0d123a12fc1d", "symbol": "SGDM", "name": "SPROTT ETF TR GOLD MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.203, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.038, "architecture_energy": 22.868, "architecture_maturity": 41.017, "architecture_confidence": 61.008, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.78, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 16.96, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 38.13, "downward_expansion": 66.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.958566, 65.123098, 67.702354, 70.456684 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 74.775, "trend_reference": 74.17398, "distance_from_trend": 0.008103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.914191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.742431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.230417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052522, "excess_performance": -0.178146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008103, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.742431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206240, "relative_activity": 0.762336, "balance": 0.66122, "dry_up": 0.602759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094267, "annualized_volatility": 0.58008, "from_high_reference": -0.22513, "from_low_reference": 0.574074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.17398, "fair_value_reference": 42.914191, "structural_low": 57.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.021672, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.030853, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.208229, "worst_return": -0.064965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012778, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325808, "worst_return": -0.095655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.2647, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.224187, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.342028, "worst_return": -0.104853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054336, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.877472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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"energy": 62.975536, "activity_lines": [ 64.753269, 66.68669, 70.422437, 73.068667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.29, "volume": 171021, "typical_volume": 310299.3, "trend": 74.836433, "fair_value": 42.113191, "relative_strength": -19.548261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.811614, "energy": 69.041878, "activity_lines": [ 62.71451, 64.95452, 69.042321, 72.040768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.31, "volume": 120384, "typical_volume": 296419.45, "trend": 74.4311, "fair_value": 42.350109, "relative_strength": -15.145626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.351739, "energy": 59.393216, "activity_lines": [ 62.159084, 64.109622, 68.120538, 71.232611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.81, "volume": 154629, "typical_volume": 289818.05, "trend": 74.180766, "fair_value": 42.590022, "relative_strength": -16.90201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.360509, "energy": 54.930258, "activity_lines": [ 61.820991, 63.359087, 67.255756, 70.418346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.775, "volume": 206240, "typical_volume": 270536.7, "trend": 74.17398, "fair_value": 42.914191, "relative_strength": -3.230417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.03795, "energy": 22.868381, "activity_lines": [ 65.958566, 65.123098, 67.702354, 70.456684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }