{ "ticker": { "uuid": "896df854-0d93-4682-972b-ecce12fad08b", "symbol": "FCEL", "name": "FuelCell Energy Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.376, "architecture_energy": 16.251, "architecture_maturity": 57.022, "architecture_confidence": 92.399, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.94, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 54.06, "deceleration": 90.45, "rotation_down": 25.48, "downward_expansion": 17.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.692667, 21.534455, 20.14169, 17.423366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.43, "trend_reference": 14.130167, "distance_from_trend": 0.445843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.329122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17894, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 64.906984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.841446, "excess_performance": 1.653993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.445843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.472557, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.524796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.64907, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.841446, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36984443, "relative_activity": 0.780451, "balance": 0.916349, "dry_up": 1.022763, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.402432, "annualized_volatility": 1.248477, "from_high_reference": -0.460665, "from_low_reference": 4.404762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.130167, "fair_value_reference": 17.329122, "structural_low": 6.175, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.150284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.123365, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336538, "worst_return": -0.035971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.230769, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.197687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": 0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 3.008013, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.790253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.008013, "worst_return": 3.008013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.358974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095568, "active": false }, { "regime": 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22.197667, 21.849455, 18.657619, 15.906172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.26, "volume": 48513167, "typical_volume": 43936902.7, "trend": 13.253833, "fair_value": 17.801942, "relative_strength": 90.680004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.207963, "energy": 27.584887, "activity_lines": [ 21.572667, 21.751727, 19.23469, 16.450183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.61, "volume": 46578595, "typical_volume": 45846223.15, "trend": 13.701833, "fair_value": 17.557776, "relative_strength": 87.696727, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.702994, "energy": 19.06341, "activity_lines": [ 21.249667, 21.719455, 19.780048, 16.98929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.43, "volume": 36984443, "typical_volume": 47388555.25, "trend": 14.130167, "fair_value": 17.329122, "relative_strength": 64.906984, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.376095, "energy": 16.250639, "activity_lines": [ 20.692667, 21.534455, 20.14169, 17.423366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }