{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89771494-49d1-4b75-bfc3-a2bc5d4e91f1", "symbol": "JEPG", "name": "JPM Global Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF - USD (dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.75, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.148, "architecture_energy": 61.356, "architecture_maturity": 4.117, "architecture_confidence": 66.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.74, "rotation_up": 75.81, "upward_expansion": 59.35, "deceleration": 12.37, "rotation_down": 14.7, "downward_expansion": 27.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.754, 22.550364, 22.303686, 22.332677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.98, "trend_reference": 22.38744, "distance_from_trend": 0.026468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.217779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.352394, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019171, "excess_performance": -0.151721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004544, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0615, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.98154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67626, "relative_activity": 0.674425, "balance": 1.98154, "dry_up": 0.766051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017482, "annualized_volatility": 0.086922, "from_high_reference": -0.024802, "from_low_reference": 0.076223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.38744, "fair_value_reference": 22.217779, "structural_low": 21.502935, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 23.566448, "volume": 29355, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 23.423077, "volume": 39444, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 23.35811, "volume": 87258, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 22.684999, "volume": 67507, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.695, "volume": 118968, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.98, "volume": 67626, "typical_volume": 100272.1, "trend": 22.38744, "fair_value": 22.217779, "relative_strength": -11.352394, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.1481, "energy": 61.355824, "activity_lines": [ 22.754, 22.550364, 22.303686, 22.332677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }