{ "ticker": { "uuid": "897bb6bd-7ab7-4099-8b18-4e97af37acdb", "symbol": "2243", "name": "HORNG SHIUE HOLDING Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.321, "architecture_energy": 27.551, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.58, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 53.97, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.1, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.863333, 45.297273, 42.120952, 36.943763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.099998, "trend_reference": 29.645, "distance_from_trend": 0.352673, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.010833, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.109324, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 48.22532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.383966, "excess_performance": 2.038234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.352673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.718219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.109324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.749555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.482253, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.348623, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.383966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.280981, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 946067, "relative_activity": 0.167378, "balance": 5.280981, "dry_up": 0.307531, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228659, "annualized_volatility": 1.017442, "from_high_reference": -0.392424, "from_low_reference": 2.83732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.645, "fair_value_reference": 19.010833, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.076355, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.061141, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.238839, "worst_return": -0.268469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.201018, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.265054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183036, "worst_return": -0.269129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.160305, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.216723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021108, "worst_return": -0.294643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078689, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.378747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250399, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.259053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.663461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001248, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.95, "volume": 1741408, "typical_volume": 1381711.0, "trend": 18.719618, "fair_value": 14.624936, "relative_strength": -15.052676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 48.720761, "energy": 44.282363, "activity_lines": [ 48.883334, 49.169091, 40.759286, 34.583656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.049999, "volume": 1500016, "typical_volume": 6032587.8, "trend": 27.76, "fair_value": 18.691603, "relative_strength": 55.803454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.553935, "energy": 30.561937, "activity_lines": [ 44.843333, 48.121818, 41.317857, 35.438065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.700001, "volume": 1099309, "typical_volume": 5882587.75, "trend": 28.701667, "fair_value": 18.845449, "relative_strength": 46.999038, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.322524, "energy": 27.246939, "activity_lines": [ 42.41, 46.779091, 41.745238, 36.208387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 946067, "typical_volume": 5652281.55, "trend": 29.645, "fair_value": 19.010833, "relative_strength": 48.22532, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.320628, "energy": 27.550633, "activity_lines": [ 40.863333, 45.297273, 42.120952, 36.943763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }