{ "ticker": { "uuid": "897bc5d3-fde4-4979-90b4-ea8aa4b74697", "symbol": "ROIV", "name": "Roivant Sciences Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.251, "architecture_energy": 54.579, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.985, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 55.78, "upward_expansion": 79.12, "deceleration": 70.42, "rotation_down": 22.21, "downward_expansion": 8.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.157333, 34.562545, 32.598952, 31.288 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.34, "trend_reference": 29.371667, "distance_from_trend": 0.237247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.499038, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.344662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.404549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.407436, "excess_performance": 0.219982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.344662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.314045, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057713, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.407436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.781544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32715379, "relative_activity": 1.224513, "balance": 4.781544, "dry_up": 0.915184, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071555, "annualized_volatility": 0.29281, "from_high_reference": -0.017838, "from_low_reference": 2.333945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.371667, "fair_value_reference": 15.499038, "structural_low": 25.72, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.037083, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014552, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.338575, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.161599, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.092927, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.508741, "worst_return": -0.174793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.021853, "worst_return": -0.121832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.016679, "energy": 83.824182, "activity_lines": [ 34.759333, 33.102545, 31.235667, 30.010215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.01, "volume": 22430912, "typical_volume": 27378830.35, "trend": 28.493667, "fair_value": 15.197179, "relative_strength": 37.862362, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.428078, "energy": 80.940189, "activity_lines": [ 35.022, 33.668545, 31.711857, 30.458108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.91, "volume": 23449526, "typical_volume": 27002003.9, "trend": 28.893, "fair_value": 15.340256, "relative_strength": 30.848834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.088909, "energy": 55.519733, "activity_lines": [ 34.679333, 33.930545, 32.053619, 30.807548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.34, "volume": 32715379, "typical_volume": 26717043.55, "trend": 29.371667, "fair_value": 15.499038, "relative_strength": 31.404549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.250513, "energy": 54.578711, "activity_lines": [ 35.157333, 34.562545, 32.598952, 31.288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }