{ "ticker": { "uuid": "897d680a-85b9-4587-be1b-c3abc2606f82", "symbol": "00636", "name": "Cathay FTSE China A50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.191, "architecture_energy": 16.898, "architecture_maturity": 39.116, "architecture_confidence": 75.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.51, "rotation_up": 31.98, "upward_expansion": 55.42, "deceleration": 87.48, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.480667, 28.486182, 28.478095, 28.186322 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.690001, "trend_reference": 27.794333, "distance_from_trend": 0.032225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.078782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.79187, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073326, "excess_performance": -0.305986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025041, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.578862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2403651, "relative_activity": 0.834124, "balance": 1.578862, "dry_up": 1.31963, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032442, "annualized_volatility": 0.12234, "from_high_reference": -0.026468, "from_low_reference": 0.300544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.794333, "fair_value_reference": 23.078782, "structural_low": 25.76, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005709, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012796, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.358974, "worst_return": -0.056019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026019, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020063, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.188047, "worst_return": -0.095153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060144, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03875, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124878, "worst_return": -0.081093, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024488, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": 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-23.145557, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.081237, "energy": 18.68409, "activity_lines": [ 28.241333, 28.470909, 28.333714, 28.009742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.809999, "volume": 5223156, "typical_volume": 3091698.6, "trend": 27.708333, "fair_value": 22.985128, "relative_strength": -21.530335, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.71982, "energy": 21.242742, "activity_lines": [ 28.372, 28.515454, 28.410476, 28.085398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.33, "volume": 2783881, "typical_volume": 3024337.65, "trend": 27.747333, "fair_value": 23.034936, "relative_strength": -21.337475, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.369597, "energy": 14.632625, "activity_lines": [ 28.358666, 28.470363, 28.43, 28.125505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.690001, "volume": 2403651, "typical_volume": 2881646.65, "trend": 27.794333, "fair_value": 23.078782, "relative_strength": -21.79187, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.1909, "energy": 16.897585, "activity_lines": [ 28.480667, 28.486182, 28.478095, 28.186322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }