{ "ticker": { "uuid": "897fb865-5044-43e1-9a18-34358ce6f6dd", "symbol": "301153", "name": "Beijing CTJ Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.215, "architecture_energy": 39.891, "architecture_maturity": 80.661, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.13, "rotation_up": 27.15, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 43.17, "downward_expansion": 70.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.174, 16.966182, 18.083228, 19.174396 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.82, "trend_reference": 20.644418, "distance_from_trend": -0.136813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.557093, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.078814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205414, "excess_performance": -0.212814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061953, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33028547, "relative_activity": 1.356974, "balance": 0.353971, "dry_up": 1.182097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087628, "annualized_volatility": 0.393065, "from_high_reference": -0.363656, "from_low_reference": 0.154893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.644418, "fair_value_reference": 26.557093, "structural_low": 15.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.016017, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004902, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.655028, "worst_return": -0.332272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097757, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.039939, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.428498, "worst_return": -0.394893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097199, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.226183, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089211, "worst_return": -0.135606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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26646447, "typical_volume": 23412062.45, "trend": 20.930316, "fair_value": 26.796911, "relative_strength": -28.36453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.962895, "energy": 77.690654, "activity_lines": [ 16.152, 16.713272, 18.420818, 19.55881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.02, "volume": 27922143, "typical_volume": 23629201.9, "trend": 20.868103, "fair_value": 26.66488, "relative_strength": -15.914256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.503805, "energy": 53.673704, "activity_lines": [ 16.762, 16.840182, 18.253559, 19.371048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.82, "volume": 33028547, "typical_volume": 24339855.4, "trend": 20.644418, "fair_value": 26.557093, "relative_strength": -20.078814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.214733, "energy": 39.89073, "activity_lines": [ 17.174, 16.966182, 18.083228, 19.174396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }