{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89805acb-67e1-4bc9-8b2c-3d9c875d91a3", "symbol": "DGL", "name": "Delegat Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.587, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.207, "architecture_energy": 53.668, "architecture_maturity": 10.368, "architecture_confidence": 61.555, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.1, "rotation_up": 67.25, "upward_expansion": 53.34, "deceleration": 19.55, "rotation_down": 14.64, "downward_expansion": 26.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.237333, 4.151273, 4.021429, 4.028688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.22, "trend_reference": 4.098667, "distance_from_trend": 0.029603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.870176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.791835, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014019, "excess_performance": -0.042292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113328, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186621, "relative_activity": 3.955905, "balance": 0.366843, "dry_up": 1.948912, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042472, "annualized_volatility": 0.263763, "from_high_reference": -0.120833, "from_low_reference": 0.224641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.098667, "fair_value_reference": 4.870176, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018468, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.03428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052083, "worst_return": -0.307914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07951, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.092557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052174, "worst_return": -0.244604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.201113, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174626, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.022981, "worst_return": -0.256002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.425209, "energy": 31.349876, "activity_lines": [ 4.051333, 3.919091, 3.914524, 3.999806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.3, "volume": 25673, "typical_volume": 34597.35, "trend": 4.136333, "fair_value": 4.946356, "relative_strength": 0.212148, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.503352, "energy": 43.687811, "activity_lines": [ 4.164, 3.998364, 3.946238, 4.009828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.22, "volume": 94435, "typical_volume": 37796.35, "trend": 4.127, "fair_value": 4.920385, "relative_strength": -2.262612, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.150601, "energy": 45.090873, "activity_lines": [ 4.204667, 4.056364, 3.970571, 4.015226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 61033, "typical_volume": 38896.9, "trend": 4.114333, "fair_value": 4.894306, "relative_strength": -1.598367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.489101, "energy": 58.476503, "activity_lines": [ 4.235333, 4.108545, 3.99619, 4.021871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.22, "volume": 186621, "typical_volume": 47175.3, "trend": 4.098667, "fair_value": 4.870176, "relative_strength": -2.791835, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.207189, "energy": 53.668372, "activity_lines": [ 4.237333, 4.151273, 4.021429, 4.028688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }