{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89862c89-c69f-4684-bc89-c1b1f66d8fa2", "symbol": "ITDE", "name": "ISHARES TRUST LIFEPATH TARGET DATE 2045 ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.523, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.91, "architecture_energy": 50.226, "architecture_maturity": 55.562, "architecture_confidence": 72.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.16, "rotation_up": 51.82, "upward_expansion": 80.12, "deceleration": 63.63, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 6.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.098253, 39.959615, 39.632084, 39.031056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.9178, "trend_reference": 38.352343, "distance_from_trend": 0.066892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.037639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.614969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09085, "excess_performance": -0.034774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.400375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63265, "relative_activity": 1.103569, "balance": 1.400375, "dry_up": 0.890661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020957, "annualized_volatility": 0.128431, "from_high_reference": -0.001274, "from_low_reference": 0.217981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.352343, "fair_value_reference": 32.037639, "structural_low": 34.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013402, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.002684, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.036468, "worst_return": -0.023727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036067, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006609, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.066504, "worst_return": -0.04218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.098064, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002728, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.111992, "worst_return": 0.084136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.9178, "volume": 63265, "typical_volume": 57327.65, "trend": 38.352343, "fair_value": 32.037639, "relative_strength": -1.614969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.910354, "energy": 50.226141, "activity_lines": [ 40.098253, 39.959615, 39.632084, 39.031056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }