{ "ticker": { "uuid": "898b5f04-8255-49ed-b7d6-e6a9bfd72818", "symbol": "605598", "name": "Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.243, "architecture_energy": 86.35, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.384, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 8.99, "upward_expansion": 21.85, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 76.35, "downward_expansion": 95.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.022, 31.082546, 37.610515, 41.356569 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.1, "trend_reference": 46.934401, "distance_from_trend": -0.401292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.730345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.162286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.513124, "excess_performance": -0.46992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.401292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.089812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.752953, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.513124, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.311996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21280490, "relative_activity": 0.878179, "balance": 0.311996, "dry_up": 1.100801, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.227068, "annualized_volatility": 0.730009, "from_high_reference": -0.636242, "from_low_reference": 0.260125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.934401, "fair_value_reference": 28.730345, "structural_low": 23.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022976, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013798, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.173684, "worst_return": -0.302659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042551, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201613, "worst_return": -0.40252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.107053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.153995, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067954, "worst_return": -0.282061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -38.460101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.666803, "energy": 79.581818, "activity_lines": [ 31.182, 34.954504, 40.862989, 44.277983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.68, "volume": 23138640, "typical_volume": 23867784.6, "trend": 48.309522, "fair_value": 28.769022, "relative_strength": -39.555491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.082403, "energy": 87.590687, "activity_lines": [ 28.032667, 32.465194, 39.018294, 42.660409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1, "volume": 21280490, "typical_volume": 24232529.35, "trend": 46.934401, "fair_value": 28.730345, "relative_strength": -33.162286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.242618, "energy": 86.350365, "activity_lines": [ 27.022, 31.082546, 37.610515, 41.356569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }