{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8990ff2e-8690-45ea-845f-cdfec8dbe608", "symbol": "002883", "name": "Jiangsu Zhongshe Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.479, "architecture_energy": 45.207, "architecture_maturity": 84.907, "architecture_confidence": 90.516, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.28, "rotation_up": 23.39, "upward_expansion": 6.36, "deceleration": 55.93, "rotation_down": 52.59, "downward_expansion": 79.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.567333, 8.612182, 8.932048, 9.205011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 9.650667, "distance_from_trend": -0.089182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.526819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.4717, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145773, "excess_performance": -0.153172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8678300, "relative_activity": 0.582363, "balance": 1.409798, "dry_up": 0.469845, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062221, "annualized_volatility": 0.302112, "from_high_reference": -0.312744, "from_low_reference": 0.097378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.650667, "fair_value_reference": 10.526819, "structural_low": 8.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008811, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.282209, "worst_return": -0.132602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.123541, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.00122, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.278539, "worst_return": -0.172761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095532, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.044064, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.294521, "worst_return": -0.184644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 10.567606, "relative_strength": -23.168885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.258644, "energy": 51.173222, "activity_lines": [ 8.525333, 8.684, 9.047381, 9.350602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.48, "volume": 3996404, "typical_volume": 15379154.05, "trend": 9.722333, "fair_value": 10.546536, "relative_strength": -19.220117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.89402, "energy": 49.78095, "activity_lines": [ 8.494, 8.605818, 8.970619, 9.265161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 8678300, "typical_volume": 14901871.95, "trend": 9.650667, "fair_value": 10.526819, "relative_strength": -19.4717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.4795, "energy": 45.206839, "activity_lines": [ 8.567333, 8.612182, 8.932048, 9.205011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }