{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89958d0d-43c0-4e22-b216-351e2c9d8591", "symbol": "002320", "name": "Hainan Strait Shipping Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.891, "architecture_energy": 57.309, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.339, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.55, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 17.61, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 51.39, "downward_expansion": 78.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.521333, 6.519818, 6.993159, 7.551324 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.72, "trend_reference": 8.406975, "distance_from_trend": -0.200664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.117859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.535574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363583, "excess_performance": -0.370983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85745581, "relative_activity": 1.146756, "balance": 0.360293, "dry_up": 1.337164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072115, "annualized_volatility": 0.259487, "from_high_reference": -0.584213, "from_low_reference": 0.103448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.406975, "fair_value_reference": 7.117859, "structural_low": 6.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.005905, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.031371, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.189139, "worst_return": -0.15748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05315, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.052096, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.410562, "worst_return": -0.213672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.212598, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.170418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.214651, "worst_return": -0.08289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 77136195.45, "trend": 8.971429, "fair_value": 7.110034, "relative_strength": -36.716573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.269215, "energy": 74.460338, "activity_lines": [ 6.368667, 6.675455, 7.331041, 7.983349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.22, "volume": 113550585, "typical_volume": 75065033.05, "trend": 8.798263, "fair_value": 7.111003, "relative_strength": -35.963163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.055308, "energy": 69.273027, "activity_lines": [ 6.290667, 6.533818, 7.170479, 7.805837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.72, "volume": 102257694, "typical_volume": 74856337.9, "trend": 8.586696, "fair_value": 7.114244, "relative_strength": -29.367325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.019604, "energy": 65.418052, "activity_lines": [ 6.416, 6.515818, 7.075356, 7.671756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.72, "volume": 85745581, "typical_volume": 74772274.35, "trend": 8.406975, "fair_value": 7.117859, "relative_strength": -32.535574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.891298, "energy": 57.308824, "activity_lines": [ 6.521333, 6.519818, 6.993159, 7.551324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }