{ "ticker": { "uuid": "899ac02e-3285-43e4-b1c2-cb9295a75366", "symbol": "000566", "name": "Hainan Haiyao Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.109, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.704, "architecture_energy": 27.994, "architecture_maturity": 16.323, "architecture_confidence": 77.071, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.38, "rotation_up": 61.72, "upward_expansion": 38.41, "deceleration": 32.52, "rotation_down": 15.39, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.533333, 5.216, 4.924762, 5.041806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.99, "trend_reference": 5.362667, "distance_from_trend": 0.116982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.963846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.343486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072755, "excess_performance": -0.080155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116982, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.32194, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1228095002, "relative_activity": 3.171863, "balance": 1.44322, "dry_up": 2.849082, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155002, "annualized_volatility": 0.765692, "from_high_reference": -0.351732, "from_low_reference": 0.623306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.362667, "fair_value_reference": 4.963846, "structural_low": 3.69, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.046875, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.03916, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.315024, "worst_return": -0.10664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024233, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.12034, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.332604, "worst_return": -0.253521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025178, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026327, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.203501, "worst_return": -0.325956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017621, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004946, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157549, "worst_return": -0.183983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084859, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", 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"direction": -31.285353, "energy": 23.856512, "activity_lines": [ 4.874667, 4.562, 4.719333, 5.061333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 1112300251, "typical_volume": 243563147.2, "trend": 5.556, "fair_value": 4.950192, "relative_strength": -15.43939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.693068, "energy": 24.07944, "activity_lines": [ 5.05, 4.673273, 4.732857, 5.026495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.82, "volume": 949679184, "typical_volume": 281847233.8, "trend": 5.475333, "fair_value": 4.949551, "relative_strength": -19.586172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.021387, "energy": 20.818173, "activity_lines": [ 5.050667, 4.732727, 4.724143, 4.979011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.86, "volume": 1122402738, "typical_volume": 331778352.1, "trend": 5.401333, "fair_value": 4.956218, "relative_strength": -0.066712, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.17294, "energy": 17.799241, "activity_lines": [ 5.328, 4.976909, 4.819, 5.003828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.99, "volume": 1228095002, "typical_volume": 387184090.95, "trend": 5.362667, "fair_value": 4.963846, "relative_strength": -2.343486, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.704078, "energy": 27.994154, "activity_lines": [ 5.533333, 5.216, 4.924762, 5.041806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }