{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "89a9e17d-46a4-4441-8dbc-0e99ab1251ec",
    "symbol": "CSNDX",
    "name": "iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 92.105,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.249,
    "architecture_energy": 30.604,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.984,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.194,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.98,
        "rotation_up": 31.42,
        "upward_expansion": 62.2,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 30.91,
        "downward_expansion": 21.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1442.825985,
        1457.305442,
        1445.355086,
        1399.775024
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 1476.939941,
    "trend_reference": 1342.920329,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099797,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1091.439423,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353204,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.466103,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.219755,
    "excess_performance": 0.048863,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099797,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058388,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.353204,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018263,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014661,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055912,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.219755,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.395731,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 15970,
      "relative_activity": 1.448152,
      "balance": 1.395731,
      "dry_up": 1.309503,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034283,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.188412,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029293,
      "from_low_reference": 0.3091
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1342.920329,
      "fair_value_reference": 1091.439423,
      "structural_low": 1155.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.016874,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007245,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.086342,
        "worst_return": -0.071224,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.044781,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021203,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.166565,
        "worst_return": 0.016177,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.165878,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.076187,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.222899,
        "worst_return": 0.000761,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.070902,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067109,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.351634,
        "worst_return": -0.142713,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030249,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.029789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.096807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060196,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.116743,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049387,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.050912,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": -0.02988,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032746,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 10504.55,
        "trend": 1324.289661,
        "fair_value": 1079.219424,
        "relative_strength": -1.083401,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 51.238421,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1429.219971,
        "volume": 14056,
        "typical_volume": 10556.35,
        "trend": 1330.626994,
        "fair_value": 1083.299167,
        "relative_strength": -1.250122,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.251599,
        "energy": 40.335024,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1401.550049,
        "volume": 16825,
        "typical_volume": 10870.35,
        "trend": 1335.905664,
        "fair_value": 1087.073975,
        "relative_strength": -3.781977,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.891415,
        "energy": 27.636299,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1476.939941,
        "volume": 15970,
        "typical_volume": 11027.85,
        "trend": 1342.920329,
        "fair_value": 1091.439423,
        "relative_strength": -1.466103,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.248657,
        "energy": 30.60425,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}