{ "ticker": { "uuid": "89b1d161-3864-4886-97ae-c7247559d17c", "symbol": "002723", "name": "Kennede Electronics MFG. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.963, "architecture_energy": 82.173, "architecture_maturity": 21.333, "architecture_confidence": 85.938, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.68, "rotation_up": 11.08, "upward_expansion": 22.08, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 79.0, "downward_expansion": 95.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.114, 7.761091, 8.417333, 8.733677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 9.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.216667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.259119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.8544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168632, "excess_performance": -0.176032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45988799, "relative_activity": 0.794122, "balance": 0.273446, "dry_up": 0.862232, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128096, "annualized_volatility": 0.537205, "from_high_reference": -0.393287, "from_low_reference": 0.135266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.0, "fair_value_reference": 8.259119, "structural_low": 6.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009921, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.012917, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.220253, "worst_return": -0.233435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.069364, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135375, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.086395, "worst_return": -0.302924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.101879, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.132396, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.126117, "worst_return": -0.4174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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66164034.0, "trend": 9.214333, "fair_value": 8.368733, "relative_strength": -12.522022, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.634597, "energy": 10.947457, "activity_lines": [ 8.920667, 8.887636, 9.21681, 9.255204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 48005300, "typical_volume": 62456611.6, "trend": 9.17, "fair_value": 8.354718, "relative_strength": -10.248173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.523168, "energy": 22.347729, "activity_lines": [ 8.652, 8.707455, 9.084238, 9.17686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.76, "volume": 62471653, "typical_volume": 61009677.5, "trend": 9.112, "fair_value": 8.325342, "relative_strength": -24.089949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.535299, "energy": 65.020808, "activity_lines": [ 7.980667, 8.336, 8.841524, 9.021376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 43266976, "typical_volume": 59114828.3, "trend": 9.047333, "fair_value": 8.286508, "relative_strength": -23.797975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.006946, "energy": 82.902906, "activity_lines": [ 7.401333, 7.989455, 8.602524, 8.862538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 45988799, "typical_volume": 57911525.25, "trend": 9.0, "fair_value": 8.259119, "relative_strength": -22.8544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.963066, "energy": 82.173107, "activity_lines": [ 7.114, 7.761091, 8.417333, 8.733677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }