{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "89b9423e-6e35-48c4-84eb-4d4101fb6170",
    "symbol": "MXUS",
    "name": "Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 83.12,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.665,
    "architecture_energy": 65.589,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.309,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.817,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.05,
        "rotation_up": 55.14,
        "upward_expansion": 81.67,
        "deceleration": 66.93,
        "rotation_down": 27.65,
        "downward_expansion": 10.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        222.256665,
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        218.747429,
        214.411721
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 228.149994,
    "trend_reference": 209.484667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.089101,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 171.374487,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331295,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.044319,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.136771,
    "excess_performance": 0.053888,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089101,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0351,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.331295,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010191,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010443,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067215,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136771,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.960372,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 43442,
      "relative_activity": 1.342037,
      "balance": 0.960372,
      "dry_up": 1.105299,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017583,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.134406,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002841,
      "from_low_reference": 0.232311
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 209.484667,
      "fair_value_reference": 171.374487,
      "structural_low": 187.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.009355,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005346,
        "regime_survival": 0.717949,
        "best_return": 0.05628,
        "worst_return": -0.113112,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.048442,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031136,
        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.102221,
        "worst_return": -0.056176,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.084565,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012774,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.212621,
        "worst_return": -0.171486,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.171808,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067271,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.294847,
        "worst_return": -0.122215,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.132633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013021,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 33143.7,
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        "fair_value": 169.567692,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 219.0,
        "volume": 16028,
        "typical_volume": 30091.9,
        "trend": 208.094667,
        "fair_value": 170.138461,
        "relative_strength": -1.593745,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 60.779682,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 218.949997,
        "volume": 57211,
        "typical_volume": 31422.0,
        "trend": 208.653,
        "fair_value": 170.720961,
        "relative_strength": -1.683576,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.403576,
        "energy": 50.430693,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 228.149994,
        "volume": 43442,
        "typical_volume": 32370.2,
        "trend": 209.484667,
        "fair_value": 171.374487,
        "relative_strength": 1.044319,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.665197,
        "energy": 65.588683,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}